Scenario Development

The insight2050 scenarios depict the growth choices facing Central Ohio by combining different land patterns with variations in housing type mix, concentrations of development, and the proportion of growth accommodated either on previously undeveloped land, or through infill and redevelopment on already urbanized “refill” land. They also vary in the proportion of growth accommodated in incorporated or unincorporated areas of the 7-county region.

Using the RapidFire model, land use scenarios are defined by the proportion of growth allocated to Urban, Compact, and Standard ‘place types’. The place types represent distinct forms of land use, each of which is associated with a unique set of assumptions describing housing type mix, travel behavior, land consumption, infrastructure costs, and other key factors. The place types are based upon and calibrated to development in the Central Ohio region. The model varies the amount of each place type in four insight2050 growth scenarios:

  • Past Trends – extends past development trends (from 1990) forward to 2050
  • Planned Future – reflects and extends local plans with moderate infill/redevelopment
  • Focused Growth – informed by housing demand forecasts, with significant infill/redevelopment
  • Maximum Infill – informed by housing demand forecasts, with maximum infill/redevelopment in existing corridors and city centers

Because the scenarios accommodate new growth with different proportions of the three place types, the scenarios vary in performance in terms of transportation, local government finances, environmental sustainability, and public health. The scenarios illustrate the differing impacts of varying future growth patterns, and are not meant to serve as a prescriptive vision or plan for the region. They do not allocate growth to specific locations, but rather to growth patterns in generalized location types (i.e. infill vs. greenfield locations).